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Southwest Virginia Blogs » Future trends

Archive for the ‘Future trends’ Category

Microsoft blesses IPTV

Monday, January 8th, 2007

Microsoft has officially blessed IPTV by announcing that the next XBox revision would be able to act as an IPTV set top box. Content will be provided by certain broadband providers like AT&T and BellSouth. If this sounds like a marriage made in heck, it probably is. The most likely reason Microsoft has made this announcement is to try to counter the buzz that will likely emerge on Tuesday (January 9th) when Apple announces its own set top box. Apple provided a peek at this device months ago, and some analysts think it may make its debut tomorrow at the start of the annual MacWorld Conference. Others think it may not show up for a couple of months.

There are two things worth noting in these new product announcements. The first is that the industry is moving quickly toward IPTV using an HD format, meaning that if you want to watch anything, you will need an excellent broadband connection. You can't squeeze even a single channel of HD TV over today's DSL and cable modem systems without seriously degrading the image quality.

The second thing is the evolution of TV and the ongoing fight between the computer as TV and the TV as computer. Microsoft's model does not make much sense (the company sees the computer as the TV) because it means you have to have a very expensive box next to the TV. Does it really make sense to put an XBox costing $400-$500 next to every TV in the house? Apple's model is less expensive and should be much less confusing to use and to manage. You can have one computer, located anywhere in the house, that stores and manages video programming (using iTunes), and you can send the video program anywhere in the home using a cheap Apple set top box.

The cable companies and IP TV providers are also crafting solutions, but the cheap set top box is likely to win this war.

Is the ‘net being ruined by spam and crooks?

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

The popular social networking site MySpace is beginning to have problems with spam, phishing, porn, and other kinds of unfriendly and malicious content. At the root of much of this is the anonymity of the sites. Anyone can register as a MySpace user, which has delighted sexual predators who use the site to find vulnerable underage children.

The phishing schemes are made simpler because you don't ever really know who you are talking to in a MySpace group or content area. So "someone" who appears to be interested in the same things you are might turn out to be a credit card crook from Asia. The business of spam and Internet fraud is accelerating as more and more parts of the world get connected. Go to a small, poor Asian country, and you can hire people for a $1 an hour to place spam on Web sites with discussion forums (which is why I had to disable anonymous posting on this site).

Eventually, we will evolve solutions to minimize many of these problems, but others may be with us for a long time.

Is the ‘net being ruined by spam and crooks?

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

The popular social networking site MySpace is beginning to have problems with spam, phishing, porn, and other kinds of unfriendly and malicious content. At the root of much of this is the anonymity of the sites. Anyone can register as a MySpace user, which has delighted sexual predators who use the site to find vulnerable underage children.

The phishing schemes are made simpler because you don't ever really know who you are talking to in a MySpace group or content area. So "someone" who appears to be interested in the same things you are might turn out to be a credit card crook from Asia. The business of spam and Internet fraud is accelerating as more and more parts of the world get connected. Go to a small, poor Asian country, and you can hire people for a $1 an hour to place spam on Web sites with discussion forums (which is why I had to disable anonymous posting on this site).

Eventually, we will evolve solutions to minimize many of these problems, but others may be with us for a long time.

Is the ‘net being ruined by spam and crooks?

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

The popular social networking site MySpace is beginning to have problems with spam, phishing, porn, and other kinds of unfriendly and malicious content. At the root of much of this is the anonymity of the sites. Anyone can register as a MySpace user, which has delighted sexual predators who use the site to find vulnerable underage children.

The phishing schemes are made simpler because you don't ever really know who you are talking to in a MySpace group or content area. So "someone" who appears to be interested in the same things you are might turn out to be a credit card crook from Asia. The business of spam and Internet fraud is accelerating as more and more parts of the world get connected. Go to a small, poor Asian country, and you can hire people for a $1 an hour to place spam on Web sites with discussion forums (which is why I had to disable anonymous posting on this site).

Eventually, we will evolve solutions to minimize many of these problems, but others may be with us for a long time.

Is the ‘net being ruined by spam and crooks?

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

The popular social networking site MySpace is beginning to have problems with spam, phishing, porn, and other kinds of unfriendly and malicious content. At the root of much of this is the anonymity of the sites. Anyone can register as a MySpace user, which has delighted sexual predators who use the site to find vulnerable underage children.

The phishing schemes are made simpler because you don't ever really know who you are talking to in a MySpace group or content area. So "someone" who appears to be interested in the same things you are might turn out to be a credit card crook from Asia. The business of spam and Internet fraud is accelerating as more and more parts of the world get connected. Go to a small, poor Asian country, and you can hire people for a $1 an hour to place spam on Web sites with discussion forums (which is why I had to disable anonymous posting on this site).

Eventually, we will evolve solutions to minimize many of these problems, but others may be with us for a long time.

Is the ‘net being ruined by spam and crooks?

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

The popular social networking site MySpace is beginning to have problems with spam, phishing, porn, and other kinds of unfriendly and malicious content. At the root of much of this is the anonymity of the sites. Anyone can register as a MySpace user, which has delighted sexual predators who use the site to find vulnerable underage children.

The phishing schemes are made simpler because you don't ever really know who you are talking to in a MySpace group or content area. So "someone" who appears to be interested in the same things you are might turn out to be a credit card crook from Asia. The business of spam and Internet fraud is accelerating as more and more parts of the world get connected. Go to a small, poor Asian country, and you can hire people for a $1 an hour to place spam on Web sites with discussion forums (which is why I had to disable anonymous posting on this site).

Eventually, we will evolve solutions to minimize many of these problems, but others may be with us for a long time.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

World’s largest copper reserve is in the U.S.

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Much is being made in the media over the rising price of copper. It is apparently now cost effective to melt down pennies and nickels for the copper content, although the Federal government is about to outlaw that.

But there is no copper shortage in the world, and the world's largest copper reserve is right here in the United States. It is not the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, which is the world's largest open pit mine. In fact, these copper reserves are not even in the ground. There is hundreds of millions of pounds of copper hanging on telephone poles in the U.S., and much of it has already been abandoned. One problem communities face is a lack of pole space for community fiber. The problem has been exacerbated over the years because it has been cheaper for the phone companies to simply lash new copper cables to poles than to first take down old cables. It is very common in many areas to see as many as four or five phone cables lashed to poles, which effectively prevents anyone else from using that pole space, even if they have a joint use agreement in place.

As the price of copper rises, someone will figure out it is cheaper to mine copper on poles than to dig it out of the ground, and some of those old cables will finally start to come down. In fact, we may already have crossed the threshold where copper telecom cables cost more than fiber telecom cables. And there will never be a shortage of raw materials for fiber cable--it is made from purified sand.

In any "crisis," there is always an opportunity. The copper price "crisis" will not only create new business opportunities, it may help solve some difficult community broadband problems as well.

New Year’s resolutions for communities

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006

Old minds (communities) think: If it didn't work last year, let's do MORE of it this year.

New minds (communities) think: If it didn't work last year, let's do something ELSE this year.

Old minds (communities) think: How do we stop these bad things from happening?

New minds (communities) think: How do we make things the way we want them to be?

Quoted from "Beyond Civilization: Humanity's Next Great Adventure" by Daniel Quinn (of 'Ishmael' fame)

Faraday cages for test takers

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

A government study in Britain recommends Faraday cages for examination rooms. A Faraday cage is basically a metal-lined room that blocks all radio frequency signals. In other words, test takers won't be able to use their cellphones to text message friends for exam answers. The study also recommends scanners to detect MP3 players and other devices. It seems that some students are recording notes on their iPod and playing the content back during the exam.

I am less disturbed by the "new" uses of technology than I am about the apparent epidemic of cheating, which really has nothing to do with technology at all. Whatever happened to working hard and earning your way?

Faraday cages for test takers

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

A government study in Britain recommends Faraday cages for examination rooms. A Faraday cage is basically a metal-lined room that blocks all radio frequency signals. In other words, test takers won't be able to use their cellphones to text message friends for exam answers. The study also recommends scanners to detect MP3 players and other devices. It seems that some students are recording notes on their iPod and playing the content back during the exam.

I am less disturbed by the "new" uses of technology than I am about the apparent epidemic of cheating, which really has nothing to do with technology at all. Whatever happened to working hard and earning your way?

Faraday cages for test takers

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

A government study in Britain recommends Faraday cages for examination rooms. A Faraday cage is basically a metal-lined room that blocks all radio frequency signals. In other words, test takers won't be able to use their cellphones to text message friends for exam answers. The study also recommends scanners to detect MP3 players and other devices. It seems that some students are recording notes on their iPod and playing the content back during the exam.

I am less disturbed by the "new" uses of technology than I am about the apparent epidemic of cheating, which really has nothing to do with technology at all. Whatever happened to working hard and earning your way?

Faraday cages for test takers

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

A government study in Britain recommends Faraday cages for examination rooms. A Faraday cage is basically a metal-lined room that blocks all radio frequency signals. In other words, test takers won't be able to use their cellphones to text message friends for exam answers. The study also recommends scanners to detect MP3 players and other devices. It seems that some students are recording notes on their iPod and playing the content back during the exam.

I am less disturbed by the "new" uses of technology than I am about the apparent epidemic of cheating, which really has nothing to do with technology at all. Whatever happened to working hard and earning your way?

Demand for bandwidth is not made up

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006

In a recent set of broadband workshops, I talked at length about the increasing demand for bandwidth, and that it is necessary to set not the upper limit on our bandwidth needs, but only a lower limit--which I think is 100 megabits/second to homes and businesses.

What was interesting is that the skeptics were not business people, who were actually nodding their heads in agreement; they understand that they do not want their ability to grow their businesses and to create jobs limited by bandwidth.

Instead, the skeptics were most often Internet access providers, who often reacted angrily and with derision. I think the issue with most of them is that their current infrastructure and business models just can't make the transition to an economy where we take unlimited bandwidth for granted.

But the proof is in the emerging systems and applications. Take a look at HP's Halo Collaboration Studio, which requires 50 megabits/second to operate. Large corporations are investing heavily in this product, which costs nearly half a million dollars. As the price comes down, this will become a common business tool.

And if 50 megabit video streams seem like a lot, look at what is happening in the lab. Data visualization scientists are streaming complex simulations of cellular processes at an astounding 7.5 gigabits/second. Fortunately, this specialized content can be handled nicely by off the shelf 10 Gig/second network gear--expensive, but Ethernet cards used to cost $1000 in 1992, and now run about $25 if you buy one, and that $25 card is probably 100 times faster than the $1000 card. That change took place in less than ten years, so there is nothing kooky about looking at these high end applications today and expecting them to be commonplace in business in ten years.

How about your community or region? Are you willing to let short-sighted Internet providers choke off business growth because they are not willing to look ahead? If they are not helping you prepare for future business needs, who is?

Web 3.0: I did not know we were done with Web 2.0

Monday, November 20th, 2006

It must be the rise in the stock market, and/or the trusty old adage that there is a sucker born every minute. This article on Web 3.0 is dense and wordy, so you may not want to spend much time actually reading it, but consider yourself warned that the "next big thing" (tongue firmly in cheek here) is Web 3.0.

Web 2.0 is generally regarded as, well, nobody really knows....it is a bunch of technologies like AJAX (a set of programming tools) and half-baked ideas like "social networking" that are all slopped together into a stew of Web applications that hardly anyone wants. A few companies are actually doing interesting and useful stuff (e.g. Google, Amazon), but 98% of Web 2.0 is hype.

That, apparently, is not enough, so someone has already decided we need Web 3.0. According the article, it will be a delicious concoction of the Web, artificial intelligence, intelligent agents, and semantic webs. Oh, frabjous day! I actually read the entire article, and it does not make a bit of sense to me. Artificial intelligence as a trend seems to pop up every nine or ten years, with the AI folks each time promising that it will be "this time for sure." Except AI has rarely delivered, ever. The Japanese spent billions in the eighties and promised they were going to solve all the world's problems with their Fifth Generation hardware and software. Don't hear much about that, do you?

The chronic disease of IT types is a naive belief that with enough code, they can do anything, including replacing our brains with artificially intelligent code, since "the brain is just a big computer." Uh huh. So as you begin to hear more about Web 3.0, my advice is to grip your wallet just a bit tighter; I see another dot-com bubble starting to form.

Have American businesses lost their minds?

Wednesday, November 1st, 2006

According to Kevin Maney, in USA Today (page 3B), Walmart is shocked--shocked--that downloads of movies from the iTunes store are being sold for less money than the old-fashioned DVDs that use enormous energy to make and transport. Walmart is upset that they might be losing sales to digital downloads, and they apparently want someone to do something about it.

In this case, the giant retailer is apparently pressuring the Hollywood content owners that license the movies for sale to force Apple and other online retailers to keep prices artificially high. This is the part that baffles me. Hardly a week goes buy that we don't see some article about some business being disrupted by the Internet. However, too often these businesses are demanding special protection against the big bad Internet. Somewhere along the way, too many American businesses have acquired the bizarre notion that government and/or consumers owe them something--that something being the inalienable right to sell something nobody wants anymore.

In the case of movies, no one wants to get in their car and fight the traffic in the Walmart parking lot and the long lines at the checkouts to buy a $12 movie. Not if they have broadband and can download it from the 'net.

We are seeing the same strange thinking from the big telecom companies, whose entire business model is slowly but surely going to be stripped from them in the coming decade as we move to community-managed digital road systems that lower telecom prices and provide a lot more choice. But some telcos think they have somehow acquired a natural right to a monopoly on telecom, and that it is the government's job to force everyone to pay more for poor service.

These companies have only two choices in the real world: adapt to changing markets or go out of business. In their bizarro world where everything is backwards, they apparently think they can stay the same forever. I don't think so. Too much money is at stake, and as businesses, government, and citizens figure out better ways to buy stuff like music and videos, these companies will have to leave bizarro world and join the rest of us.